What Are Your Chances?
Category: Health and Wellness Issues
August 9, 2023 — It’s a question just about everyone thinks about as they reach retirement age, at least to themselves. What is my life expectancy – or, how much longer do I have on this planet as a living being? And, hopefully, will those will be good years, where I can enjoy life and not be a burden to others.
It is not just an idle question. There are plenty of practical considerations in knowing the answer to your life expectancy, or at least knowing the probabilities. For one, when should I take Social Security? If, for example, I know the odds say I will die before age 80 (and the same for my spouse or he/she is a higher earner), then the best bet is to take this benefit at the first opportunity, age 62. Waiting longer will cost me money I will never see.
Another concerns your health care options. If it looks like I don’t have a long life expectancy, it might not make sense to have invasive tests, procedures, surgeries, or certain drug regimens any more. That way I can avoid risking what time I have left. Mammograms, colonoscopies, and many other cancer screenings fall into this category. For example, new draft guidelines from the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force say mammograms may not be worth it for women over 75.
A great retirement gift!
The big thing to know here is that one number does not fit all. For example, the average 65 year old white male has a predicted life span of 18 more years. But life expectancy differs tremendously by gender and lifestyle. Smokers, either current or previous, have much shorter expected life spans at that age. They have dramatically higher rates of death from cancer, strokes, COPD, and heart disease than non-smokers. According to the KnowYourChances Calculator from the National Cancer Institute, an expected 86% of never smoked white males age 65 will survive to age 75, compared to only 63% of current smokers (80% for previous smokers). You can use their tool to predict your chances as well.
More Lifespan Calculators
These calculators use a variety of questions about medical and family history, exercise, etc. I took the 2 life expectancy calculators below and liked the result – they claim I might live to 100! Of course anything can happen, so please be careful out there.
Livingto100 is said to be one of the best life expectancy calculators.
Northwestern Mutual has a Lifespan Calculator that is easy to use as well.
Bottom line. There are good reasons for knowing what your life expectancy might be. Those include deciding when to take Social Security and what to do about invasive tests and expensive drugs.
For further reading:
NY Times: A Number That Should Guide Your Health Choices (It’s Not Your Age)
Comments on "What Are Your Chances?"
JCarol says:
I took the two tests and my life expectancy was estimated at 99 and 101. DH came in at 94. All four parents lived into their 90s so these numbers were unsurprising.
Based on family longevity we delayed and maximized hubby's SS to age 70 and took my mine at 65. (Due to a ten year gap for child-rearing years, my benefits were 1/3 less than his.) With the rules in place at that time, he was also able to get 50% of my SS from age 66-70 while letting his continue to increase by 8% per year.
Our doctors are already cautioning us about the limited benefits of certain tests. We not only look at risks versus rewards in that area of our lives, but also when considering major purchases and work/upgrades to make to our large-ish home. (We're staying put for now, but realize we might feel differently at 80 about caring for a 2500 sf house plus a pool and yard.
RichPB says:
Rather amusing. At 75, I am now the longest living male in my line by 13 years. That was my father and he outlived his by even more. Heart disease is always the culprit. On my mother's side, the uncle I was named after died of a heart attack at 35. So I'm happy to be here after a minor attack and triple bypass at 65 and trying my best to enjoy luife in general. After knowing my history since being a teenager with resultant expectations, it's pretty much a relief being me. :)9