Instant Poll: What Will Happen When Social Security Trust Funds Run Out in 2033

There will be lots of noise and posturing, waving of arms, banging the table, etc. But, maybe a band-ade and kick the can a few years out, rinse repeat.

What will happen to social security if they pass the GPO bill? Will it shorten the time SS is solvent?

Honestly a combination of all of the above is the best fix! Problem is each party has their own ideas and Congress probably will end up taking a one or two prong approach when they're down to wire. As one nearing retirement I've been reducing the SS portion of my financial plan to hopefully overcome any shortfall in SS benefits. Currently planning SS being 20% of our plan. When we first began serious retirement planning 20 years ago we were figuring SS at 35%.

This is really sad. Many people rely on this and it will be 1/2 my current income! Maybe we can stop paying income taxes on it. Food workers in VA are making $20:hr, and cost of living & food is very high!!!

SS IS A SEPARATE FUND AND SHOULD NEVER BEEN OPENED UP TO BORROW FROM-LEAVE IT ALONE AND STOP STARVING RETIRES WHEN THEY NEED IT MOST. YOUR MONEY IS ALWAYS WANTED TO BE TAXED FOR SOMETHING AND STOP TAXING THE LITTLE ONE GETS FROM SS.

Editor's comment: Thanks Elizabeth, it really is a problem for a lot of people. One clarification, the money in the Social Security Trust Funds has always been there, invested in Treasury Securities and taken out as needed. The problem is that payments to beneficiaries is outpacing funds coming in from younger workers. See this for additional info: https://www.cbpp.org/research/social-security/understanding-the-social-security-trust-funds-0

This has been an ongoing concern for how many years? More than enough time has passed that if this would even remotely affect anyone in their income producing years, they have had, and will have, many years to have in place an alternate plan for retirement income. For those who are elderly and rely only on Social Security, we must remember that Social Security was not intended to be the only income for retirement. The problem would be how to help sustain these now elderly people, which will fall on the backs of every American in the form of charities or government programs. If the government had handled the original idea of Social Security correctly, the program would not be in the dire straights it is in now.

An interview with Robert D. Reischauer, economist and former head of the Congressional Budget Office, discussing the “raiding” of Social Security. http://classes.igpa.uiuc.edu/jgiertz/Reischauer-AARP.htm

If you don’t want to read the whole interview here is his short answer to the “raiding” and “stolen” theories: “The raiding notion is based on a misperception; the government has never raided the trust fund. The Social Security system lends its surpluses to the Treasury, which uses these resources to finance other government activity and thereby avoid going into public debt markets to borrow. All the money lent to the Treasury will be paid back with market-based interest when Social Security needs the funds to pay benefits.”

There is nothing new about trust fund money put into US securities, it has been done since the inception of the program as required by law. The funds have always been repaid with interest since 1937. In 2023 the interest was $66.9 billion. In 2023 taxation of benefits added $50 billion in revenue to Social Security.

In January 2024 the “ The You Earned It, You Keep It Act” was introduced in the House, it would have eliminated taxes on Social Security benefits and assess Social Security taxes on income over $250,000. It was projected to add 20 years to Social Security’s solvency. It had a 0% chance of being enacted but at least we got those so important Congressional hearings on UFOs, that'll keep food on the table and the house warm.

Too many in Congress, supposedly our Representatives, said that the fund is a handout! I've never heard of a handout where I am forced to input money. I given no choice, no option. Have I had my own option I wouldn't have spent as much money as I did on social security and instead could have better prepared for an excellent prosperous retirement but now I'm basically a welfare recipient. I've been working since age 16 but I can only draw the most recent quarter that is so much crap! Why can't I have in my entire amount that, I accrued by doing what I was supposed to do! Also we need disclosure on how many other people are getting social security that never held a job that are not citizens of this country you're sharing money you're taking money out of the fund will not asking the people who put the money in the fund how dare you say oh it's going to be a shortage well you better damn well fix it before it happens!

Suicide, preventable deathsm and violent crime will increase, especially if Medicare and Medicais are also cut.

Forget The Golden Bachelor, get ready for Senior Squid Games.

Editor's Comment: That is very funny Daryl, in a sick sort of way!

SS will be there after 9 yrs. It's most likely not as much as it is now though. Think about this, people who are paying into the system, and have been putting into it for yrs not getting anything? If this does happen, there will likely be lawsuits.

Editor's clarification: I agree that everyone eligible will continue to receive some benefits when the Trust Funds are exhausted in 2033 or so. It is just that the contributions from current workers will only be able to fund about 80% or less of what they get now.

Also, another commenter said that "many other people are getting social security that never held a job that are not citizens of this country". It is actually the reverse of this - undocumented immigrants are paying in but not getting any benefits. According to the Bipartisan Policy Center: "In 2022, unauthorized immigrants contributed $25.7 billion in Social Security taxes, typically by working under borrowed or fraudulent Social Security numbers. Unauthorized immigrants, however, are ineligible to claim Social Security benefits." https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/immigration-social-security-solvency/

Undocumented immigrants also pay billions of dollars to federal, state, and local governments.

In fact, it is true that non-citizens who have never worked in the US do, in gact, receive SS benefits. My wife worked in a job where she saw this happening frequently.

Editor's comment: Here is what the Social Security Admin has to say on the subject (note the phrase "meet all eligibility requirements", in other words have paid enough in the system to qualify.:

Lawfully present noncitizens of the United States who meet all eligibility requirements can qualify for Social Security benefits. This rule also applies to noncitizens authorized to work in the United States who got a Social Security number after December 2003. For more information visit our Immigration page.

Noncitizens of the United States must meet certain requirements to continue receiving benefits outside of the United States. We stop payments to noncitizens who do not meet these requirements after they are outside the United States for 6 calendar months in a row. If we stopped your payments, we will not start them again until you return to the United States and remain for a full calendar month. For more information visit our International Programs page.

Six statements about Social Security fraud from Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, everything else is my view. The numbers are from 2016 but I doubt the facts have changed drastically since then.

1. According to the Social Security Administration’s Inspector General, in 2013 just over 1,500 deceased individuals in all age ranges were still receiving benefits. They account for only $15 million in improper benefit payments.

2. A 2015 report found 6.5 million active Social Security numbers for people over the age of 112 – but only 13 of them were being used to receive benefits.

3. According to the Social Security Administration, all improper payments, including payments to the deceased and the very old, are estimated at about $3 billion per year.

4. Total Social Security benefits in 2016 will exceed $900 billion, so eliminating $3 billion per year of improper payments would reduce costs by at most 0.4 percent, extending the program’s solvency by about 3 months.

5. Cutting improper payments for only the very old or the deceased would reduce program costs by between 0.00002 and 0.002 percent, extending the program’s solvency by between six minutes and 12 hours.

6. Fraud is probably less common in the SSDI program than many believe. It is not a major cost driver for the program, and it is a mistake to exaggerate the size and scope of the problem. Depicting SSDI as rife with fraud and painting SSDI beneficiaries as fraudsters only undermines public support for the program and demonizes individuals with disabilities who rely on it.

CRFB calls for more fraud investigations but with so many in Congress wanting to cut funding for any regulatory agencies how is that possible? It would be cheaper to fund agencies to stop fraud than to lose the revenues that are lost to fraud. What a way to run a business.

We should quit using phrases such as broke, bankrupt, exhausted to describe Social Security. The fund is none of these things and it won’t be in 2033 It will be insolvent, unable to pay its full obligation to current retirees, big difference. If the cut in benefits takes place in 2034 Social Security can still make payments for 75 years at that rate.

The phrases broke, bankrupt, exhausted just undermine confidence in the system and I think they are part of a coordinated attack to end or hand over the system to the private financial sector. I know younger people who believe the system is doomed and why wouldn’t they, they have been hearing this doom and gloom their whole lives. Repeat a big lie long enough and people will believe it, especially in an era where non stop targeting with pinpoint messaging manipulates people’s view of issues. Misinformation about being broke, corrupt and failing make it harder to fix the problems. Why would young people want to increase taxes on themselves if they think the program won’t benefit them? The propaganda machine has worked its magic.

I constantly hear politicians say government should be run like a business. If that’s so then why don't they raise revenues by dropping the cap on wages that are subject to Social Security taxes? What business purposefully limits it revenue source and expects its tens of millions of shareholders to bear the burden of lost product value? How many company shareholders would put up with a management that operated that way? In this case it seems like a majority of us do. I see no outrage at those who want to ruin what has been the most successful Federal program ever. It has kept tens of millions of Americans out of poverty and was able to amass a $2.79 trillion surplus, no other government program comes close to that record! Liking on Facebook or posting on Xwitter don’t count as productive outrage and won’t keep tens of millions of seniors out of poverty if Social Security as we know it disappears.

Thank you, Mike.

Well if Vivek and Elon are allowed to do what they are proposing ( finding and eliminating as much gov. waste as the many lawsuits will allow) the once wasted funds could then be rerouted to the Social Security system. We are all looking forward to that right?

Thank you for your well-reasoned comments, Mike.

So many who are now in their late 70s, took benefits at 62 because they believed non-credible, self-described "experts" who swore SS would be gone in ten years (from then).

Eighteen years later, SS is still chugging along. Many are deeply regretting their early choice, and are fearful that in ten years they'll only be receiving 3/4 of those lower monthly checks. Living on a single, low SS benefit due to late divorce or widowhood is especially painful.

I personally believe SS will be shored up at the last minute. Congress, like God, is rarely early but almost never late. God has reasons we don't understand. Congress is easier to figure out.

Elected officials may procrastinate until the deadline is upon them, but are well aware they'll be severely punished in the elections if SS payouts decrease for current or imminent recipients.

I am one of the people who believed that the Social Security was not going to last. I took it at 62 and am still working because my social security only pays half of my rent. I believe that God wants me to keep writing my blog: ArtoftheHeart1 - so I keep doing that, and somehow I am always taken care of. ArtoftheHeart1 is a Self-Help blog to help people with their lives, their issues, their relationships, and a few laughs thrown in, too!

When I moved to Washington, DC in 1979, a much repeated mantra was that Social Security would no longer be operational and broke by the time I needed it. Here I am at 70 and low and behold it IS there for me and for my generation. I laugh to think "how did I get here? Washington and the Federal Government only tell part of the story and they use that to influence voters and Politicians. I have learned now to take a wait and see stance. I have faith and know that many millions of people rely on every single penny they receive in benefits from SSA. It would be a hardship on me to lose 20% of my benefits and I worked as a college educated medical professional with no pension. I do have a 401K and an IRA. Those who have pensions ( which are nearly non existent now) are the lucky few. Social security was indeed built on a three pronged idea by our government that Social Security would be "supplemental", how ever the same government allowed companies to under fund pension funds and discontinue them altogether which was the second prong and then whatever could be saved by the individual (very difficult for many people) was the third prong. Now with inflation and high costs of living what is left is really stretched, and many people do not have enough in their accounts to cover their expenses. I wonder what they would expect Seniors to do then? I remember the commercials on Television when Bill Clinton was running for his second term . They showed elderly people pushing mops working into their old age--maybe they need to be revived.

I agree 100% with Jennifer. I am sick of listening to the BS of ALL politicians!

Thought of a great question to ask any politician at the federal level: "What specific things are going to do to prevent the impending exhaustion of the Social Security (retirement) Trust Funds in 2033 or soon after ? Please skip the part about how you will always protect Social Security, I want to know what YOU are going to Do to solve the problem. Platitudes won't solve the problem.

With a new Administration coming in shortly and the DOGE committee, politicians at the Federal level have been asked about Social Security and Medicare. A few recent responses, none should come as a surprise unless you haven’t been paying attention for the last 60 years.

Rep. Rich McCormick (GA) “We’re going to have to have some hard decisions. We got to bring the Democrats in to talk about Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare. There’s hundreds of billions of dollars to be saved, and we know how to do it, we just have to have the stomach to actually take those challenges on.”

Sen. Mike Lee (UT) on X “Of all the deceptive sales techniques the U.S. government has used on the American people, one of them-the Social Security Act-gets far too little attention. Buckle up because this is a wild ride”. Elon Musk replied “interesting thread”. Lee is a long time critic of Social Security, calling it a Ponzi scheme and wanting to “pull it up by the roots and get rid of it” along with Medicare and Medicaid.

Rep. Ralph Norman (OK) “nothing is sacrosanct”

Rep. Mark Alford (MO) said the GOP will have to “take a look” at Social Security and Medicare.,

Rep. Greg Lopez (CO) said Social Security, Medicare are “on the table.” and “there will be some cuts”

Waste exists everywhere, from the smallest household to the most treasured government program. Let's get to chopping!

Yes! And who knows the value of a dollar more than a guy that has billions of them? Just sell off those six mega-mansions in California if you need extra cash to live on! Who’s wasting all that Medicare money? The insurance companies? The drug-pushers, err, pharmaceutical companies? Hospitals charging unbelievable rates for, blah,blah,blah. No, it’s that pesky old codger who thinks he needs two kidneys to lead a full life. It’s the old useless grandma whose test is no longer covered since she reached the expendable age of 65. And don’t get me started on you entitled babies who think you deserve something back after having paid into social security your entire working lives. Suck it up, buttercup.

Well said, Daryl. In the name of cutting "waste," Joe and Jane Citizen will be the losers while mega corporations continue to receive an uninterrupted flow of billions, thanks to their paid-up "political insurance" via lobbying efforts and election campaign donations.

It's sickening.

Once again, waste exists everywhere, from the smallest household to the most treasured government program. Consider the following excerpts from an article written in 2022 regarding Wisconsins Act 10 effect on government waste;
WEA Trust, the teachers’ union-created insurance company that once had a lock on hundreds of school districts in Wisconsin, just announced it is terminating its health insurance business by the end of this year. Quite oddly, a spokesperson insisted in a story in a Madison newspaper that Act 10 had nothing to do with the decision.
No one with a memory or a calculator – or access to reports written by the Wisconsin Office of the Commissioner of Insurance over the years – believes that. Act 10 killed the teacher’s insurance plan. The Wisconsin Education Association Council (WEAC) created the not-for-profit WEA Insurance Trust in 1970.  Basically, for decades the union used its power at the bargaining table to force school boards to use WEA Trust insurance for teachers, even though it was way more expensive than other options.
At its peak, WEA Trust had hundreds of employees in its building in Madison. Approximately two-thirds of 424 school districts were buying its insurance in 2011. That was the year Act 10, Scott Walker’s signature legislation that essentially eliminated public-sector collective bargaining, gave school boards – and the taxpayers they are supposed to represent – the ability to look for better rates.
They didn’t need to look far. The impact was immediate in many districts. Some districts saved millions in that first year alone. Appleton reportedly saved over $3 million per year by renegotiating its WEA Trust contract. Menomonee Falls reportedly saved approximately $2 million per year as the dual result of a switch to Humana and the fact they could finally (also as a result of Act 10) require district employees to pay their fair share.
WEA Trust leaders did try to pivot after Walker put a halt to the gravy train. They tried to market their health insurance to other public employees – not just teachers – and more recently bought the Health Tradition Health Plan from Mayo Clinic Health System, which catered to a small number of private employers. In the end, though, they were simply unable to compete with other providers.
The benefits are clear. Scott Walker argued convincingly way back in 2012 that savings in 52 of the state’s 424 school districts alone already amounted to roughly $30 million “due to competition in health providers and design changes.” And that’s just a fraction of the savings. The Kenosha Unified School District alone in 2019 saved at least $13 million in a single year by switching to United Healthcare, according to a story in the Kenosha News. Conservatively speaking, savings over the years in all school districts could easily be in the hundreds of millions of dollars – if not more. That’s money that districts could instead direct to the classroom.
Act 10 was a godsend for taxpayers and school districts that care about them. Eleven years after it passed, the savings continue to add up and – with the fortunate demise of WEA Trust’s health insurance plan – it’s abundantly and thankfully clear there’s no going back.  BY MIKE NICHOLSJUNE 23, 2022
Mike Nichols is the president of the Badger Institute. Permission to reprint is granted as long as the author and Badger Institute are properly cited.

Lets get back to discussing Social Security. and leave talking about taxes or budgets to other places. Thanks.

Sorry Admin. When you posted the following ( a little higher up the thread ) "Thought of a great question to ask any politician at the federal level: "What specific things are going to do to prevent the impending exhaustion of the Social Security (retirement) Trust Funds in 2033 or soon after ? Please skip the part about how you will always protect Social Security, I want to know what YOU are going to Do to solve the problem. Platitudes won't solve the problem". Well I thought you wanted to know specifics like where would the money come from to bolster social security which is why I posted what I posted. I'm guessing the politicians might say something like what I said. Sorry

Admin Comment: No problem Rufus. Your suggestions might very well be part of the answer!

This comment by Mike confuses me: 3. According to the Social Security Administration, all improper payments, including payments to the deceased and the very old, are estimated at about $3 billion per year.

Does that mean that payments to me when I get to be very old (assuming I’m not there already) are improper? Who knew there was an age cut off. ?

JoannC: I believe that the statement from SSA refers to payments to an account holder whose age is extreme such as 120. This would be in the case where SSA has not been notified of the death of the account holder and someone else is receiving the funds. You hear about this every now and then where a child or other relative keeps the death of the recipient a secret and continues to use the funds for themselves.

Editor Comment: Thanks LS for the clarification. I wondered about this myself.

The cap on wages subject to Social Security taxes raises to $176,100 in 2025. Elon Musk quit paying SS taxes at 12:15 AM January 1, 2025.