Florida No Longer Adds More People Than It Loses
Category: Best Retirement Towns and States
Climate, Insurance, Costs Driving Trend
February 9, 2025 — At least since the beginning of the 20th century, Florida has been a magnet for all kinds of people, particularly retirees. Covid boosted that trend, as working people escaped crowded cities to find sunshine and lower taxes. The era of Florida continuously adding new residents appears to have come to an end, however, according to two recent studies. Data from other sources come to the same conclusions. With 23 million people, it is still one of the fastest growing states in the Union.
Neutral net migration occurs when about the same number of people move to a state as move out. Florida has traditionally had very positive net migration, turning pastures into cities and developments as people flocked to the state. UHaul published a recent report showing that 50.4% of its recent Florida moves came into the state, while 49.6% moved out. Atlas Van Lines came to a similar conclusion: it reclassified Florida from an “inbound state” to one that shows a balance between inbound and outbound movers.
Not all of Florida affected
South Florida, with its more expensive housing, seems to have more folks fleeing the state than the northern part of the state. Younger people looking for better opportunities and lower cost housing are also driving emigration. Foreign buyers have also slowed down their purchases.
A combination of factors
Skyrocketing insurance rates are a huge problem across the state, as ever increasing extreme weather events destroy entire communities like Fort Myers Beach. That resort town is still rebuilding, 3 years after Hurricane Ian slammed into it in 2022. Some people are saying, “I don’t want to go through another one of those”. The average Florida property owner pays more than four times the national average for home insurance. Climate change is another factor, as higher ocean levels flood streets and homes more frequently. Then there is cost – Florida’s coastal real estate prices have exploded – now double what they were in 2015. The Zillow Home Value Index for Florida stands at $386,000, vs. $356,000 for the entire U.S. Finally, aging infrastructure and strict new laws to protect condo buildings is also fueling departures from the Sunshine State.
Comments: Do you live in Florida? Thinking about moving – what would cause you to move out.
For further reading:
Florida Migration Drops
Comments on "Florida No Longer Adds More People Than It Loses"
Admin says:
2 items in the news today bear this out. One is from the NY Times that talks about how climate change, storms, fires, and coastal flooding are having a negative impact on housing prices in many parts of the U.S. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/03/opinion/home-values-insurance-climate.html?unlocked_article_code=1.vk4.DlEc.2RALqJADVSrx&smid=url-share The other is a report that confirms that the people leaving Florida are often younger, perhaps because they need more affordable housing and lack of opportunity. https://moneywise.com/a/ch-synd/this-generation-leaving-florida-in-droves_1738763412346
Mike says:
In his testimony to the Senate Banking Commission yesterday Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve bank, said “If you fast-forward 10 or 15 years, there are going to be regions of the country where you can’t get a mortgage,” due to insurance companies and banks moving out of coastal and fire prone areas they consider too risky. He added the banks would not have a physical presence in some areas, taking their operations and the services they provide with them.
In California the FAIR plan insurer of last resort will impose a $1 billion assessment on insurance companies who then will pass the costs onto policy holders. State Farm insurance, the largest insurance company in California has asked for a emergency increase of 22% for homeowners and 15% for renters. State Farm said it has paid out one billion dollars as of Feb. 1 to settle 8,700 claims.
Insurance companies are now asking California's government to allow the use of future climate change in setting rates, now they only use historical data. Nationally by 2055 according to First Street, a company that studies the risk of natural disasters," there will be a $1.47 trillion in net property value losses due to insurance pressures and shifting consumer demand."
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Dave McKay says:
Here in Palm Coast, none of the local homebuilders are building spec houses, so there is a shortage. I am personally taking up the slack, just having sold my first beachfront spec for $5 million. Now I'm building two more on the beachfront. Extremely profitable endeavour!
Dave McKay says:
And the homeowners insurance cost is not bad. I also live on the beachfront and pay approx. $9K a year.
Rufus says:
To Dave McKay; the reason many folks say homeowners insurance in your area is ridiculously high is because they come from somewhere else, where a $400,000 house can be insured for $700.00 a year as is my case precisely. I live in Wisconsin 1.5 miles from lake Michigan in a fairly rural and yet very nice area. $9,000 a year for homeowners ins. is unthinkable here. That's not to say you folks are crazy for paying it; I'm just saying there's a lot to said for what you're accustom to. Happy Trails!
Daryl says:
So this is the end of Florida coastal living for the middle class? You’ll need a nest egg big enough to afford a throwaway home. My former neighbor bought a beachfront villa home for $300k 5 years ago near Vero Beach, I wonder how he’s weathering this. And Mike, will there even be future climate change data available? I thought that was all being erased. Glad I’m staying put in stinky Pittsburgh, if I need beachside I’ll move on the Mon.
Dave McKay says:
To Rufus, OK, but what would a $5 milllion house on the lakefront in Lake Michigan, cost to insure?
Rufus says:
That's a good question Dave. You'd have to go a ways south of me for the homes to hit 5 million in value. Milwaukee area. Up by me which is 40 miles north of Milwaukee the lake shore homes are more like 1-2 million. Anyway I checked out $400,000 homes in Palm Coast and noted the ins. was about $1900 per year which is 2 1/2 times what I pay. Considering what you're getting there for your money I agree with you; it appears ins. rates aren't so bad after all. In fact I just found a home for sale in an upscale area called "River Hills" a suburb of Milwaukee's far northwest side which has an asking price of 4 million. Homeowners ins. is $666 per month or $8,000 per year and it's not anywhere near Lake Michigan. This isn't an exhaustive search by any means but I have to agree with you now. Happy Trails!
Uncle AL says:
...problem with insurance is their ridiculously high SF replacement cost factors...here on Long Island, New York, insurers (thieves) rate the SF replacement costs at $330 SF....so if you have a 2000 SF home, they claim it costs $660,000 to replace, even though the market value, including land, is maybe 70% of that...this you end up with at least a $3,000 bill.....go figure...
Danno says:
If the cost of insurance is deemed prohibitive then a person or business may choose to forgo insurance and take their chances that no fire, flood, hurricane, earthquake, tornado, theft, vandalism, frivolous lawsuit, etc. will occur. If the cost of the dwelling and its contents is less than the ongoing cost of insurance and the opportunity cost of investing that amount instead, then perhaps it is worth the risk. Many people "go naked" on health and car insurance so the same option is available on real property. 22 years ago my home insurance was $100 per month and now it is $250 per month. Given 22 years of inflation, adding earthquake insurance and my home value doubling, the $250 per month seems to be reasonable thus I am choosing to renew my policy.